After three very successful first days of the playoffs, we hit a roadblock on Friday and missed all three props. That means we’ve gone 6-6, but keep in mind that underdog odds are hard to hit and that means we’re still in the playoff contention at +295. Also, keep in mind that I am making game selections on SportsLine and there are two more at the moment. I’ve been 6-2-1 so far in the playoffs, so go ahead and subscribe. When there is money to be made, there is no time to waste. We keep our fingers crossed for a better day.
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Freeman battled tough hitters against tough pitching clashes in Game 1. Prior to that, he had nine home runs and a .615 slugging percentage in his career in 29 games at this stadium. Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff can be obtained via left-handed longball, as he has allowed 10 this season. Freeman is 3 for 9 with a career homerun against Woodruff.
So does all of this make a Freeman home run likely? No of course not. Look at the +450 sitting there. It’s hard to try and bet on who is going to hit a home run in any given game. Giancarlo Stanton, Nelson Cruz and Yordan Alvarez say I’ve been fortunate enough to pick a home run so far in the playoffs. Let’s watch Freeman get us back on track after Randy Arozarena was detained in the yard on Friday.
Max Fried on 4.5 strikeouts, -140
Fried is not a batting pitcher, which is why this number may seem low. He’s on a huge run in the second half with a 1.74 ERA in his last 14 games. He’s averaging 6.14 strikeouts per start, so it’s a win. In those 14 starts, he’s only been under 4.5 strikeouts twice, and both times it was exactly four. The Brewers are capable of producing a high draw volume in a game. They struck out 10 strikeouts in Game 1. I expect Fried to have a great outing and go deep, which means we’ll get at least five strikeouts here.
Kevin Gausman under 5.5 strikeouts, -120
Gausman hasn’t really shown a noticeable drop in strikeout rate throughout the season, but there are other factors at play here for me. He had a 4.42 ERA after the all-star break from 1.73 previously. The Dodgers were taken out on strikes 11 times in Game 1 and were publicly criticized by their manager, Dave Roberts, after the game for too much swing with a golf analogy.
After being outscored for nine innings, I think the Dodgers offense is a sleeping giant before this one. Finally, the Giants have barely used their enclosure and there is a day off Sunday.
All this to say that I think the Dodgers hit Gausman a bit early and Giants manager Gabe Kapler is getting aggressive using his paddock in an effort to take advantage of their rest before and after this game in order to take a 2-point lead. -0 in the series. . In other words, he won’t let Gausman “carry him” in order to preserve the bullpen and will have a quick hook.
That means I don’t believe Gausman will have enough time to get six strikeouts. Take the underside.